Gallowatch: Local Elections 2025

The Battle for Lancashire

After a spate of independents were elected back in July’s General Election, many commentators speculated that the decoupling of Muslim voters from Labour might be a time-limited phenomenon. Much of the coverage focused on the Gaza issue, and suggested that Labour would inevitably win back Muslim voters as the conflict in Israel fell out of the headlines.

But, as last week’s by-election in Ilford demonstrates, Labour’s Muslim problem is here to stay. Muslim voters are not just concerned with foreign policy issues such as Gaza and Kashmir, but have begun to find a distinct voice on a wide variety of issues. Labour now walks a difficult tightrope, between retaining its traditionally-strong Muslim support and attracting white working class voters who are abandoning the party for Reform.

With the Labour Party slumping in the polls, and Muslim voters continuing to desert the party in favour of explicitly sectarian independent candidates, Keir Starmer will be relieved that this year’s local elections are mostly concentrated in predominantly white parts of the country.

However, for those following the growing trend of sectarian politics in Britain, fear not. This round of local elections will still feature a number of contests which can be used to track Muslim voting patterns. These seats are primarily located in Lancashire, a county which is at the forefront of the country’s ongoing demographic change.

A number of south Lancashire towns, which will vote as part of the wider Lancashire County Council elections, feature independent Muslim candidates who are challenging the Labour Party’s traditional hold over heavily-Muslim wards.

Over the course of the election, I will do my best to detail the latest developments in these races. For now, with the full candidate lists published earlier today, you can find below a handy guide on the seats to watch if you’re interested in Britain’s sorry slide into sectarianism.

Lancashire

Lancashire County Council was elected in 2021, at the height of the Conservative Party’s ‘Covid bounce’. The Tories won out, slightly expanding the majority that they won back in 2017. As you can see in the map below, the Conservatives tend to perform best in rural areas, with Labour’s support concentrated in a series of post-industrial town in the south of the county.

Burnley Central East (LAB majority 1,151) is dominated by two borough wards - Daneshouse with Stoneyholme (75.1% Muslim) and Brunshaw (1.5% Muslim). There are three Muslim candidates challenging Labour this year, with Maheen Kamran and Javad Mokhammad standing as independents, while Rayyan Fiass stands under the Worker’s Party GB banner. Fiass stood as an independent in the Burnley constituency at the 2024 General Election, winning just 0.7%.

Burnley North East (LAB majority 1,242) takes in the borough wards of Lanehead (24.9% Muslim) and Queensgate (37.5% Muslim). Here, Usman Arif is challenging Labour as an independent. Arif is a former Labour councillor, and is being supported by a campaigning organisation called the ‘Burnley Independent Group’.

For my money, Burnley North East looks like the more likely pick-up. The Muslim population is more evenly spread across the seat, and Arif’s existing profile as a councillor (plus the absence of other candidates who might split the vote) is likely to help him.

A fifteen-minute drive north of Burnley is Pendle, where there are two wards to watch. The first is Brierfield and Nelson West (LAB majority 1,276), where Mohammed Iqbal is standing as an independent. This ward is divided between Brierfield East & Clover Hill (46.4% Muslim), Brierfield West & Reedley (53.9% Muslim), and parts of the town of Nelson, such as Bradley (53.6%).

Last time around, Iqbal was elected as a Labour candidate, winning 56% of the vote despite the party’s poor fortunes in the rest of the county. He was suspended from the party in June 2022 over allegations of anti-Semitism, after tabling a motion at Pendle Council’s annual meeting to fly the Palestinian flag above Nelson Town Hall. He was reinstated by Labour in December 2023, but nevertheless chose to stand as an independent in the 2024 Pendle Borough Council elections. He defeated Conservative candidate Hassan Mahmood by a margin of 55% to 45%.

Like Burnley’s Usman Arif, Iqbal is likely to benefit from significant name recognition, given his position as a borough councillor and his high-profile suspension from the Labour Party. At the 2024 Pendle Borough Council elections, Muslim independents beat the Labour Party in all three of the seats which constitute Brierfield and Nelson West. As such, this looks like a stronghold for the Muslim independent vote in Lancashire.

Elsewhere in Pendle, Azhar Ali is standing as an independent candidate in Nelson East (LAB majority 1,052). Ali was the Labour candidate in this seat in 2021, and served as the leader of the Labour Party group on Lancashire County Council. Ali was the Labour candidate in the 2024 Rochdale by-election, which was won by George Galloway of Worker’s Party GB. He was infamously suspended from the party after a recording emerged of Ali suggesting that Israel had deliberately relaxed its security ahead of the October 7th terror attack, in order to give the IDF a justification to wage war against Hamas in Gaza.

Nelson East includes wards such as Marsden & Southfield (32.9% Muslim), and so should serve as fertile ground for Ali’s challenge. It remains to be seen whether or not Muslim voters here will punish him for his highly controversial remarks last year.

In central Lancashire, Preston also features a few interesting contests. In Preston City ward (LAB majority 1,445, 16.3% Muslim), Yousuf Motala is standing as an independent. Motala was elected as the Labour candidate here back in 2021, winning 68% of the vote. He quit the party in November 2023, branding it ‘racist’ for its response to the events in Gaza. Given the ward’s low Muslim population, it seems unlikely that Motala will be able to hold his seat without significant cross-community support - but given the relative success of independent candidate Michael Lavalette at last year’s general election (21.8% across Preston constituency), there may be some appetite for a left-wing anti-Labour alternative.

In Preston North (CON majority 880), Qasim Silman Ajmi is standing as an independent. This seat includes the borough wards of Cadley (6.7% Muslim) and Greyfriars (14.7% Muslim). Given this relatively small share of the population, it seems unlikely that Ajmi will be able to unseat the Tory incumbent - but by splitting the Labour vote, he could deliver a surprise hold for a Conservative Party which is expecting to lose a significant number of seats nationwide.

Given that Lancashire is a largely white, rural county - particularly given the exclusion of Blackburn and Blackpool from the jurisdiction of the county council -, there are no other seats with a notable Muslim independent challenger. For the Labour Party, this will come as a significant relief, but these six seats are still worth watching for those who are tracking the growth of sectarian politics in Britain today.

Interestingly, in Hyndburn (14.7% Muslim), Labour has been spared from any independent sectarian challenges. In heavily-Muslim Accrington West & Oswaldtwistle Central (LAB majority 200), it may still be worth keeping an eye on Sohail Asghar, the Green Party candidate, who is challenging Labour incumbent Munsif Dad. Dad is Labour’s leader on Hyndburn Borough Council, and so would be a significant scalp for a Green Party which has often sought to capitalise on the Muslim vote in the absence of independent alternatives.

Elsewhere

In the Home Counties, Buckinghamshire could prove to be surprisingly fertile ground for anti-Labour Muslim candidates. Both Aylesbury and High Wycombe are home to significant Muslim populations, who could frustrate Labour hopes of an insurgency in this traditional Tory heartland.

In Conservative-held Abbey ward, which encompasses part of central Wycombe, Aatif Kayyani is standing as an independent. Kayyani is a local businessman, who operates tours to Mecca for Muslims undertaking Hajj to Mecca.

In Marsh & Micklefield ward, to the east of the town centre, Khalil Ahmed is the independent challenger. Ahmed is running alongside Trevor Snaith in this two-member ward, campaigning along traditional localist lines.

Elsewhere, the number of Muslim independent candidates is somewhat limited.

In Gloucestershire, keep an eye on Barton and Tredworth (CON majority 525), which includes two areas which are 35% Muslim and 11% Muslim respectively. Matthew Phypers is the Green Party candidate here, and in the absence of an independent candidate, he may be able to capitalise on the Muslim vote - the Greens have a fairly effective machine across Gloucestershire as a whole, winning 13% at the 2021 County Council elections.

Staffordshire may also be worth watching - though with no independent candidates and a weak local Green Party, Labour may be able to hold onto their Muslim support. Three areas of the brewing town of Burton have large Muslim communities - namely Burton Central (26.4% Muslim), Burton Shobnall (31.5% Muslim), and Burton Eton Park (24.1% Muslim). In the Burton Town and Burton Trent wards, Labour is represented by two Muslim candidates (Arshad Afsar and Syed Hussain respectively), a fact which is likely to count in their favour.